МИРОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКА: закономерность или случайность?

GLOBAL POLITICS: Regularity vs. Eventuality

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Minsk Agreement: How International Mediators Can Break the Stalemate
mikhailtroitski
A comment for the Center on Global Interests

The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine met in Paris last week to discuss implementation of the Minsk accord for Ukraine, amid growing Western concern about Moscow and Kyiv’s unwillingness to implement their sides of the agreement. Ukraine argues that Russia’s continued military presence in the eastern part of the country makes it impossible to move forward with constitutional reforms required under  Minsk that would grant special political status to the east. Russia claims that these reforms must take place prior to any changes on the ground. As a result, both sides are locked in an impasse that neither is willing to break.

International mediators—the major European powers that helped to broker the Minsk accord of February 2015—should be expected to make the first proactive move in the current limbo. If the conflict in and around Donbass is to be resolved in the foreseeable future, a transparent election in the breakaway regions would be necessary. A real election worth conducting would be one with unpredictable results. That is, neither the incumbent authorities in the self-proclaimed people’s republics, nor any political forces from “mainland Ukraine” should feel that their victory is guaranteed.

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